S&P 500 earnings face inflation test as Meta, Tesla and IBM report

U.S. earnings season enters a heavier week with inflation moving the other way. Analysts expect S&P 500 operating earnings per share to rise 24.0% year over year in the third quarter of 2026, according to Ed Yardeni’s weekly outlook published by Investing.com.

GE Aerospace, General Motors and Netflix are scheduled to report Tuesday during the week of October 19-23. Meta Platforms, Tesla and IBM follow Wednesday, according to Schwab Network’s calendar. Lam Research and Texas Instruments also report Wednesday, putting several technology businesses’ results alongside those of major industrial employers.

The inflation backdrop is less forgiving. September consumer prices rose 0.6% from the previous month, taking annual inflation to 3.7% from August’s 3.4%, Yardeni’s outlook noted. Producer prices for final demand rose 1.3% on the month and 6.3% from a year earlier, the highest annual rate since 2022. Retail sales increased 0.8%, but only 0.2% excluding gas stations.

Employment indicators have strengthened alongside those price increases. Tuesday’s ADP weekly employment reading follows a rise in its four-week average to 24,750 for the week ended September 26, up from a late-July low of 8,250. Thursday’s initial unemployment claims release follows a reading of 199,000, with the four-week average at 198,500, according to the same outlook.

Housing starts and building permits are due Tuesday, with S&P Global’s preliminary October manufacturing and services surveys due Friday, Schwab Network’s calendar shows. Those business surveys follow a sharp increase in a separate measure of service-sector costs: the Institute for Supply Management’s services prices-paid index reached 70.7 in September, its highest since July 2022, according to Yardeni.